Sustainability Science Textbook 2nd Edition

Bert J.M. de Vries

Chapter 202024-03-06T16:46:49+00:00

CHAPTER 20

Stories about the future

Keywords

Scenarios Storylines

Test your understanding of this chapter by reviewing the study questions below.

Answer:

A representation of the driving forces is called the logic of a scenario. Underneath are regularities and hypotheses of how the world works. Many scenarios of (global) futures are ‘driven’ by ongoing exponential growth of economic activity, almost always expressed as Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The two key variables behind it are 1. increasing growth in (labour) productivity (‘technology’), and 2. continuously expanding open markets (‘trade’).

Answer:

(personal)

Answer:

It is unwarranted to consider scenarios with a model like World3 in the Limits to Growth (1972) book as predictions. Yet, one can put the historical data of some proxy variables next to the computer-generated scenario variables and inspect the (mis)match.

As it turns out, the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario and the sustainable world scenario (SW – planned stabilization of population and economy) are the least in agreement with historical trends in globally aggregated population, food and industrial output, resources and the environment. The scenarios which are run with twice as many resources (BAU2) or assume more rapid and deep technological progress (CT) are more in agreement with historical data on global trends. It suggests that the key uncertainties are about the sink side (pollution) and about technology.

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