CHAPTER 8
Understanding, modelling, managing complexity
The parts of reality studied in sustainability science are complex, evolving socio-ecological systems (SES) and it is no easy task to assess the status and quality of scientific knowledge about them. Some reflection on epistemology, concepts and methods is necessary.
- Complexity can be conceived in terms of (degree of) objectivity and (degree of) connectivity. The NUSAP approach in post-normal science and the distinction between ‘Newtonian’ Mode-1 and transdisciplinary, participatory Mode-2 science are are among the proposals to ‘manage’ complex issues. Analyzing the situation in terms of consensus on values and consensus on knowledge is also a powerful heuristic in brokering science and policy. The distinction between natural and social sciences is always in the background;
- Models and modelling techniques are important in deepening understanding of natural and human systems. Natural and social sciences have each their own epistemological and methodological traditions and practices and the integration of concepts, theories and methods is one of the challenges in sustainability science. In particular, it is important to develop common theories of human behaviour as part of the evolving complex system science (CSS);
- There are clear limits to what can sensibly be done with formal models. Other ways of communicating scientific insights and contributing to public discourse are the use of metamodels and statistical regularities and also analogs and metaphors. Also orga nizing concepts and methods, such as transition theory, elementary models (learning-by-doing, depletion and substitution), competition-cooperation games and social dilemmas and rivalry and excludability in goods and services, support effective investigation, communication and dialogue.
Test your understanding of this chapter by reviewing the study questions below.
All Materials Relevant to this Chapter
Catastrophe Theory
Modelling catastrophic change The simplest mathematical equation that represents bifurcations and catastrophic change is a first order differential equation of the form: (eqn. 1) Solving for the attractors (dX/dt = 0), it is seen [...]
Acquiring knowledge: strong and weak knowledge
It is a very fundamental principle indeed that Knowledge is always gained by the orderly loss of information, that is, by condensing and abstracting and indexing the great buzzing confusion of information that comes from [...]
Analogs and metaphors
In an abstract scientific sense, modelling is a coding process and creates a relation between a ‘natural’ and a ‘formal’ system (Figure 1a; Rosen 1985). As scientists refine existing and construct new theories, there may [...]
Catastropic change in (eco)systems: case-studies
There are some empirical, illustrative case-studies in which catastrophic did happen. The first classical example is the interactive dynamics between the spruce budworm, its predators and the boreal forest in North America (Holling 1986; Meadows [...]
Free energy flow density as a measure of complexity
The astrophysicist Chaisson (2001) has proposed an interesting link between energy and complexity. Organisms can be viewed as dissipative structures: Ordered objects whose structure can be maintained thanks to a steady input of high-quality energy. [...]
Syndromes: in search of generic patterns of vulnerability and resilience
A fragmented, disciplinary approach does not work in sustainability science. A broader perspective transcending disciplinary boundaries is needed. One framework to investigate global change phenomena in such a broader, problem-oriented setting is the syndrome approach, [...]
Even simple systems can show complex behaviour: mechanics
Change is an elementary phenomenon in life. It is most visible in movement of matter. It is useful to look at a simple, well observable and controllable system: a mass m at the end of [...]
A simple introduction to system dynamics for sustainability – a report by Hördur Haraldson
We humans make mental ‘maps’ of processes around us in order to live and survive. Many of those maps are simplified, based on a limited set of acquired habits and experienced events. The maps also [...]
System dynamics for real-world complexity: a book by Erik Pruyt
In 2013, Dr. Erik Pruyt (Delft Technical University) has released a book on system dynamics, titled Small System Dynamics Models for Big Issues: Triple Jump towards Real-World Complexity. It is set up as an interactive [...]
Games for sustainability education, research and policy
One way to explore integration of the natural and the social sciences is the construction and use of simulation games and policy exercises (cf. Chapter 10 and 12). Since 2013 several websites have come online [...]