Modelling catastrophic change The simplest mathematical equation that represents bifurcations and catastrophic change is a first order differential equation of the form: (eqn. 1) Solving for the attractors (dX/dt = 0), it is seen that one root is X = 0 and it represents a globally unstable attractor and the other two roots are [...]
To every natural form, rock, fruit or flower, Even the loose stones that cover the high-way, I gave a moral life, I saw them feel, Or link’d them to some feeling; the great mass Lay bedded in a quickening soul, and all That I beheld, respired with inward meaning. Wordsworth, Prelude For the [...]
There are some empirical, illustrative case-studies in which catastrophic did happen. The first classical example is the interactive dynamics between the spruce budworm, its predators and the boreal forest in North America (Holling 1986; Meadows 2008). When the budworm became a ‘pest’ and northern forests were sprayed with the insecticide known as DDT to control [...]
The energy needed to deliver energy has always been a concern for societies. ‘All our societies require enormous flows of high-quality energy just to sustain, let alone raise, their complexity and order (to keep themselves [ . . . ] far from thermodynamic equilibrium) ... [and] after a certain point in time, without dramatic new [...]
Definitions Systems consist of elements and their interrelations or linkages. The theory which focuses on these linkages is called network theory. It is of great help to understand how systems behave and is being applied to a large variety of systems, from ecosystems to electrical systems. A network is defined as a set of system [...]
History of Kaibab plateau Numerous models of ecosystems have been made – but sometimes one wonders whether somewhere a reality can be found which more or less is described by such a model. The term empirical validation may be too strong, the aim is model-based story-telling. There are some interesting real-world stories to tell about [...]
Forests in Japan have been under pressure already for millennia (Totman 1989). More than 2000 years ago, rice culture caused the first dramatic modifications of woodlands and bronze and iron smelting started to put pressure on the forest due to the demand for high-quality charcoal. Metallurgy led to new, more powerful tools and the assault [...]
Every now and then I meet friends who have given up on changing the world: “It is too complex, too violent, too far away, and I feel powerless in the face of it. So I try to focus on my own family, neighbourhood…”. Somewhat paradoxical, this attitude is partly a response to the information overload [...]
A simplified scheme of the hydrological stocks and flows is given below. The climate variables precipitation and temperature over time are the most important input variables. Rainwater will fall upon the vegetation and partly flow out as runoff and partly evaporate, and the remainder penetrates the soil where it adds to the stock of soil [...]
‘When you understand that the take-it-or-leave-it prices now being offered [by wholesalers] mean that you’ll pay more to produce crops than you’ll get back in proceeds, you’re left with the choice of either becoming a slave to this impossible system or find a niche to begin other activities.’ This statement is from a French farmer, [...]